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ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: ZENODO
ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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World Probability, Observer Frequency, and Self-Locating Uncertainty in the Sleeping Beauty Problem

Authors: Pothuri, Avaneesh;

World Probability, Observer Frequency, and Self-Locating Uncertainty in the Sleeping Beauty Problem

Abstract

The Sleeping Beauty problem is usually framed as a conflict between two intuitions: repeated awakenings appear to favor Tails (the “Thirder” position), while the original coin toss still seems physically fair. This manuscript explores whether these two effects are actually the same thing. The central idea is that repeated observer instances may change: observer-frequency, self-locating uncertainty, and betting exposure, without necessarily redistributing the underlying probability mass of the generating world itself. In this framework, observer multiplicity is treated as a subdivision of existing measure rather than the creation of new probability mass. The manuscript develops this distinction through: measure conservation across observer states, repeated-trial analysis, betting asymmetries, and comparisons with Halfer/Thirder positions, SSA/SIA, and centered-world reasoning. This is intended as an independent conceptual contribution to discussions surrounding anthropic probability and self-locating belief.

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    popularity
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    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green