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Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Preprint . 2026
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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The Illusion of Scientific Talent Identification Through Publication Counts

Authors: Pacheco-Torgal, F.;

The Illusion of Scientific Talent Identification Through Publication Counts

Abstract

This letter responds to Haunschild and Bornmann article, published in the Journal of Informetrics, that proposes a bibliometric framework for identifying promising early-career scientists based on three indicators: the number of publications in high-impact journals, total publication output, and corresponding authorship. Using these metrics, the authors compile a dataset of 46,200 individuals classified as “potentially talented,” which they suggest could support peer review and possibly inform hiring decisions. While the objective of identifying emerging scientific talent is legitimate, the methodological assumptions underlying this approach raise significant conceptual, empirical, and ethical concerns. This commentary critically examines the reliance on publication counts and journal prestige as proxies for scientific ability and future impact. Drawing on existing research on research assessment, it highlights well-known limitations of journal impact factors, including their inability to measure the quality of individual contributions and their susceptibility to ecological fallacies. Empirical evidence suggesting that high-impact journals may also exhibit higher rates of retractions due to misconduct further complicates their use as indicators of excellence. The analysis also discusses broader systemic consequences of metric-driven evaluation, including incentives for excessive publication output, the proliferation of hyperprolific authorship, and the potential reinforcement of structural inequalities in the global research system.

Related Organizations
Keywords

Bibliometrics, Research evaluation, Early-career researchers, Journal impact factor

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    popularity
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    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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