
Deliverable 2.2 of the ENFASYS project is centred on the development of thematic Stock and Flow Diagrams (SFDs) to support the transition towards sustainable farming systems across Europe. This output seeks to construct diagrams that are not confined to an EU-level perspective but instead reflect specific transformation pathways that consider local perspectives. By integrating the diverse dynamics observed in CSs with EU-level policy frameworks, Deliverable 2.2 bridges local insights and systemic strategies, providing a robust foundation for sustainable agricultural transitions. The primary goal of this output is to utilize the insights gained from the Causal Loop Diagrams (CLDs) developed in D2.1 to design thematic Stock and Flow Diagrams (SFD) that address key transformation pathways. These pathways - such as the conversion to low-input farming, the extensification of livestock systems, and the promotion of consumer branding and direct selling - represent critical areas where systemic interventions can drive meaningful change. By focusing on these pathways, the SFDs will identify leverage points and lock-ins, providing evidence-based support for EU-level policy development. The goal of the creation of SFDs is to produce a System Dynamic Model, which will be the basis of ENFASYS D5.3, “User guide web-based tool to simulate the impact of interventions on the EU food system”. The goal of this deliverable is the creation of a practical Web Tool for analysing how thematic interventions can drive sustainable progress in agri-food systems. The objectives are structured around three main goals: (i) providing targeted insights into thematic policy impacts, (ii) identifying leverage points and systemic barriers, and (iii) supporting scenario-based decision-making tailored to specific pathways. The thematic SDMs will simulate changes within the EU agricultural system under different pathways, illustrating the potential impacts of different interventions on areas such as production practices, biodiversity, and market dynamics-. While the CSs provide the foundational dynamics and relationships for these models, the thematic focus ensures alignment with EU-level policies and initiatives. This dual approach enables both broad systemic analysis and case-specific insights, allowing for tailored strategies that address unique regional and thematic challenges. Identifying leverage points and systemic barriers (lock-ins) is central to the SDM’s value. The model will analyse feedback loops and variable interconnections to pinpoint areas where targeted interventions can produce significant, system-wide effects. For example, leverage points might include shifts toward reduced pesticide use or the improvement of animal welfare standards. Similarly, identifying lock-ins, such as market or regulatory barriers, will help design strategies to overcome these challenges, enabling effective implementation of sustainable practices across different EU contexts. Coherently with the workflow envisioned for project activities, the output of this deliverable are models based on previously developed project deliverables (namely Home et al 2023, Ottaviani Aalmo et al 2024, and Roglic et al, 2025), which helped to ground the structure of the models in realistic and relevant notions, tailored to project’s case studies. The deliverables in question have undergone varying levels of stakeholder engagement for validation purposes, therefore a first validation stage was achieved through the use of already validated results. Further validation will be seeked for the implementation of project Task 5.4, which, building on the model outputs of this deliverable, will consist of a Web Tool for scenarios and policy analysis. Therefore, after the methodological basis posed in the current deliverable, several inputs will be included in the Web Tool, including models’ results as well results of experimental tasks 5.2 and 5.3 and the outcome of several rounds of validation with relevant stakeholders. More information concerning other project tasks and workflow can be found in the dedicated chapter of this document, number 3. Another objective of this deliverable is scenario-based decision-making. Indeed, the thematic SDMs will enable users to explore potential outcomes of diverse strategies within each pathway. Policymakers and businesses can test interventions, assess their impacts on sustainability metrics, and refine their approaches based on anticipated results. This functionality ensures that decisions are informed by robust, data-driven projections, fostering adaptive strategies that are both effective and resilient. Stakeholder engagement is pivotal to the success of Task 2.3. Coordinators of the CSs play a critical role in providing input on the local dynamics and ensuring that the thematic models accurately reflect the realities on the ground. Collaboration with EU-level experts, including representatives from European policy experts, further ensures that the models are aligned with current policy dialogues and scientific evidence. This iterative process of validation and calibration enhances the credibility and practical relevance of the models. Lastly, these models will be foundational inputs for the web-based tool to be developed in Task 5.4, ensuring its capacity to simulate scenarios and inform decision-making for a wide range of stakeholders. The problem statement for the D2.2 SFD is aligned with the overarching goal of the ENFASYS project, which is encouraging the implementation of sustainable practices through EU specific transition pathways in the European food system. Given the complexity of this process, three distinct problem statements have been considered for the purpose of building three SFDs, each based on three thematic pathways identified by the European Institutions as key strategies for the transition to sustainable agricultural systems in Europe. These will be the basis for building three distinct SDMs, which will underpin D5.3, the Web Tool for scenario analysis. The construction of thematic SDMs begins with an initial analysis of the problem statement for each case study. This analysis serves to determine how each case study fits into existing specific transformation pathways identified, such as low-input farming, or livestock extensification. Once the pathways have been defined, the salient components of the CLD for each case study are extracted and integrated, enabling the identification of archetypes and recurrent relationships. This process ensures that the models capture the most critical dynamics for each transformation pathway, while preserving the unique context of each case study. In this way the thematic SDMs will represent shared challenges and opportunities, while simultaneously safeguarding the localized insights that are essential for a robust systems analysis. The present report should be taken as a preliminary step in the iterative development of a robust System Dynamics Model (SDM) rather than a final and stabilized version. As (Sterman, 2003) stated, SDMs require continuous refinement through testing, simulation, and validation to ensure that they capture complexity as accurately as possible. At this stage, the models outlined in this report represent an initial structured framework that will evolve over time, incorporating further empirical insights and adjustments. A key limitation of this work is that the models have not yet undergone full-scale simulation or testing under different policy and market conditions. Their refinement will depend on a combination of scientific literature, which provides the theoretical foundations for modelling systemic interactions, and European policy reports and databases, which ensure alignment with real-world agricultural and environmental dynamics. Additionally, behavioural experiments conducted in T5.2 and T5.3 will play a critical role in providing insights into farmer decision-making, policy responses, and the adaptation of different market actors to sustainability transitions. The results of these experiments will serve as an essential input for calibrating the models, allowing for a progressive adjustment of their assumptions and parameterization. Given these considerations, this report should be regarded as a starting point that establishes both a methodological foundation and a first structured version of the three Stock and Flow Diagrams (SFDs), which will later be expanded into fully operational SDMs. The refinement of these models will require iterative engagement with stakeholders at multiple levels to ensure their relevance and applicability. As outlined in T5.4, this process will include progressive validation at the European level, integrating the perspectives of project partners and policymakers. The final outcome will be a refined, empirically validated, and policy-relevant tool, capable of simulating different intervention scenarios and providing valuable insights for decision-making in the transition towards sustainable food system.
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