A simple model is developed to describe the spread of SBV at a continental scale and, more specifically, within and between NUTS2 regions in Europe. Transmission between regions was modelled using a kernel-based approach; it is assumed a density-dependent formulation for the distance kernel though an alternative, density-independent formulation was as well explored. The regions which did not become infected and did become infected both contribute to the likelihood. Non-informative (and independent) priors (diffuse exponential) were assumed for all model parameters. A Markov chain-Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach was used to generate samples from the joint posterior density for the parameters in the model. Posterior predictive checking is carried out to assess model adequacy.

{"references": ["Gubbins, S, Richardson, J , Baylis, M , Wilson, AJ and Abrahantes, JC (2014) Modelling the continental-scale spread of Schmallenberg virus in Europe: Approaches and challenges. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 116 (4). 404 - 411.", "European Food Safety Authority; \"Schmallenberg\" virus: Analysis of the epidemiological data and Impact assessment. EFSA Journal 2012; 10(6):2768. [89 pp.] doi:10.2903/j.efsa.2012.2768.", "FSA (European Food Safety Authority), 2014. Schmallenberg virus: State of Art. EFSA Journal 2014; 12(5):3681, 54 pp. doi:10.2903/j.efsa.2014.3681"]}

The model is implemented in Fortran and Matlab.