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Using Counterfactual Queries To Improve Models For Decision-Support

Authors: Sundin, Iiris; Schulam, Peter; Siivola, Eero; Vehtari, Aki; Saria, Suchi; Kaski, Samuel;

Using Counterfactual Queries To Improve Models For Decision-Support

Abstract

In this extended abstract, we generalize active learning to tasks where a human has to choose which action a to take for a target after observing its covariates and predicted outcomes. An example case is personalized medicine and the decision of which treatment to give to a patient. We show that standard active learning, which is not aware of the final task, would be very inefficient, and we introduce a new problem of decision-making-aware active learning. We formulate the problem as finding the query with the highest information gain for the specific decision-making task, assuming a rational decision-maker. The problem can be solved particularly efficiently assuming an expert able to answer queries about counterfactuals. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method in a binary outcome decision-making task using simulated data, and in a continuous-valued outcome task on the medical dataset IHDP with synthetic treatment outcomes. The outcomes are predicted using Gaussian processes.

Keywords

StanCon, Bayesian Data Analysi, Stan

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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
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influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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