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Conference object . 2024
License: CC BY
Data sources: ZENODO
ZENODO
Conference object . 2024
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
ZENODO
Conference object . 2024
License: CC BY
Data sources: Datacite
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Assessing uncertainty cascades in energy and environmental modelling: a case for Portugal

Authors: de Tomás-Pascual, Alexander; Sierra, Miquel; Soleymani, Ramin; Lombardi, Francesco; Luz, Guilherme; Fazendeiro, Luis M.; Campos, Inês; +4 Authors

Assessing uncertainty cascades in energy and environmental modelling: a case for Portugal

Abstract

In the SEEDS project, we used the energy system optimization framework Calliope to model 271 suboptimalconfigurations for Portugal's energy transition to 2050 with a Modelling for Generating Alternatives (MGA)perspective. The environmental impacts of these scenarios were then analyzed with the ENBIOS tool, whichintegrates Life Cycle Assessment and socio-ecosystem metabolism. In this paper, we assess the robustness ofour workflow through: (i) Spearman correlation values to address the influence of technologies in two impactcategories and (ii) Monte Carlo analysis to compare the uncertainty of Life Cycle Inventories to the optionspace given by MGA. This process highlighted uncertainty hotspots related to the modelling and indicatorchoices, as well as the accuracy and reliability of the technology data used. Our results highlight a range ofsensitivities among different energy pathways, with open-field solar electricity production, pumped hydro,and electrolysis showing high sensitivity, while wind onshore and biofuel to methane exhibit negativecorrelations. Monte Carlo simulations show significant uncertainty in the water consumption potential of asingle energy system configuration. Transparency and open communication of uncertainty is vital inpolicymaking to empower stakeholders with necessary information for informed decisions.

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average