The Norwegian Climate Prediction Model (NorCPM) is aiming at providing prediction from seasonal-to-decadal time scale. It is based on the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM, [1]) and the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF, [2]) data assimilation method. NorESM is a state of the art Earth system model that is based on CESM ([3]), but uses different aerosol/chemistry scheme and ocean model (evolved from MICOM). The EnKF is a sequential data assimilation method that allows for fully multivariate and flow dependent correct using a covariance matrix procuded by a Monte-Carlo ensemble integration. Currently the system only intend to update the ocean part as this is where most of the predictability is expected, but additional atmospheric nudging and assimilation of land variables are also considered.

{"references": ["Counillon, F., Bethke, I., Keenlyside, N., Bentsen, M., Bertino, L., & Zheng, F. (2014). Seasonal-to-decadal predictions with the ensemble Kalman filter and the Norwegian Earth System Model: a twin experiment. Tellus A, 66. doi:10.3402/tellusa.v66.21074"]}