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Predictive ecological niche model for Cinnamomum parthenoxylon (Jack) Meisn. (Lauraceae) from Last Glacial Maximum to future in Vietnam

نموذج بيئي تنبؤي لـ Cinnamomum parthenoxylon (Jack) Meisn. (Lauraceae) من الحد الأقصى الجليدي الأخير إلى المستقبل في فيتنام
Authors: Mai Phuong Pham; Duy Dinh Vu; Thanh Tuan Nguyen; Van Sinh Nguyen;

Predictive ecological niche model for Cinnamomum parthenoxylon (Jack) Meisn. (Lauraceae) from Last Glacial Maximum to future in Vietnam

Abstract

Cinnamomum parthenoxylon (Jack) Meisn. is a tree in genus Cinnamomum that has been facing global threats due to forest degradation and habitat fragmentation. Many recent studies aim to describe habitats and assess population and species genetic diversity for species conservation by expanding afforestation models for this species. Understanding their current and future potential distribution plays a major role in guiding conservation efforts. Using five modern machine-learning algorithms available on Google Earth Engine helped us evaluate suitable habitats for the species. The results revealed that Random Forest (RF) had the highest accuracy for model comparison, outperforming Support Vector Machine (SVM), Classification and Regression Trees (CART), Gradient Boosting Decision Tree (GBDT) and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt). The results also showed that the extremely suitable ecological areas for the species are mostly distributed in northern Vietnam, followed by the North Central Coast and the Central Highlands. Elevation, Temperature Annual Range and Mean Diurnal Range were the three most important parameters affecting the potential distribution of C. parthenoxylon. Evaluation of the impact of climate on its distribution under different climate scenarios in the past (Last Glacial Maximum and Mid-Holocene), in the present (Worldclim) and in the future (using four climate change scenarios: ACCESS, MIROC6, EC-Earth3-Veg and MRI-ESM2-0) revealed that of C. parthenoxylon would likely expand to the northeast, while a large area of central Vietnam will gradually lose its adaptive capacity by 2100.

Keywords

Ecological niche, habitat, Agricultural and Biological Sciences, Sociology, niche model, Climate change, GEE, Biology (General), Plantae, Species distribution, Species Distribution Modeling and Climate Change Impacts, Geography, Ecology, Last Glacial Maximum, Ecological Modeling, <i>Cinnamomum parthenoxylon</i>, Life Sciences, Biota, FOS: Sociology, Habitat, machine learning, Archaeology, Physical Sciences, species diversification, Impact of Pollinator Decline on Ecosystems and Agriculture, Habitat Fragmentation, Environmental niche modelling, Research Article, Physical geography, mac, QH301-705.5, Population, Molecular Systematics of Gesneriaceae and Allies, Magnoliopsida, Lauraceae, Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, Machine learning, Molecular Biology, Biology, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Cinnamomum, Demography, Habitat Suitability, Holocene, Species Distribution Modeling, Cinnamomum parthenoxylon, Computer science, Tracheophyta, FOS: Biological sciences, Laurales, Environmental Science, Random forest

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
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