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The Costs of Sea-Level Rise: Coastal Adaptation Investments vs. Inaction in Iberian Coastal Cities

Authors: Luis Maria Abadie; Elisa Sainz de Murieta; Ibon Galarraga;

The Costs of Sea-Level Rise: Coastal Adaptation Investments vs. Inaction in Iberian Coastal Cities

Abstract

Iberian coastal cities are subject to significant risks in the next decades due to climate change-induced sea-level rise. These risks are quite uncertain depending on several factors. In this article, we estimate potential economic damage in 62 Iberian coastal cities from 2020 to 2100 using regional relative sea-level rise data under three representative concentration pathways (RCP 8.5, RCP 4.5 and RCP 2.6). We analyze the expected accumulated damage costs if no adaptation actions take place and compare this scenario to the investment cost of some adaptation strategies being implemented. The results show that some adaptation strategies are less costly than the potential damage under inaction. In other words, it is economically rational to invest in adaptation even in a context of high uncertainty. These calculations are very relevant to inform climate change adaptation decisions and to better manage the risk posed by sea-level rise. Moreover, our findings show the importance of a good understanding of the shape of the sea-level rise and damage cost distributions to calculate the expected damage. We show that using the 50th percentile for these calculations is not adequate as it leads to a serious underestimation of expected damage and coastal risk.

Countries
Spain, United Kingdom
Keywords

Adaptation costs, investment decision, climate change; adaptation costs; investment decision; Spain and Portugal coastal cities; uncertainty; stochastic model, Stochastic model, climate change, Spain and Portugal coastal cities, adaptation costs, uncertainty, stochastic model

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
views
OpenAIRE UsageCountsViews provided by UsageCounts
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17
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