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Tackling Uncertainty: Forecasting the Energy Consumption and Demand of an Electric Arc Furnace with Limited Knowledge on Process Parameters

Authors: Zawodnik, Vanessa; Schwaiger, Florian Christian; Sorger, Christoph; Kienberger, Thomas;

Tackling Uncertainty: Forecasting the Energy Consumption and Demand of an Electric Arc Furnace with Limited Knowledge on Process Parameters

Abstract

The iron and steel industry significantly contributes to global energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. The rising deployment of volatile renewables and the resultant need for flexibility, coupled with specific challenges in electric steelmaking (e.g., operation optimization, optimized power purchasing, effective grid capacity monitoring), require accurate energy consumption and demand forecasts for electric steel mills to align with the energy transition. This study investigates diverse approaches to forecast the energy consumption and demand of an electric arc furnace—one of the largest consumers on the grid—considering various forecast horizons and objectives with limited knowledge on process parameters. The results are evaluated for accuracy, robustness, and costs. Two grid connection capacity monitoring approaches—a one-step and a multi-step Long Short-Term Memory neural network—are assessed for intra-hour energy demand forecasts. The one-step approach effectively models energy demand, while the multi-step approach encounters challenges in representing different operational phases of the furnace. By employing a combined statistic–stochastic model integrating a Seasonal Auto-Regressive Moving Average model and Markov chains, the study extends the forecast horizon for optimized day-ahead electricity procurement. However, the accuracy decreases as the forecast horizon lengthens. Nevertheless, the day-ahead forecast provides substantial benefits, including reduced energy balancing needs and potential cost savings.

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Keywords

electric arc furnace, electric steel industry, Technology, Energy, forecast modelling, neural network, T, Markov chain, New Energy for Industry, DSM_OPT, Innovation Network, NEFI, Climate and Energy Fund, Industry, time series forecasting, Vorzeigeregion

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
5
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
gold