Research on the uncertainty of Land Use Cover Change (LUCC) models is still limited. Through this paper, we aim to globally characterize the structural uncertainty of four common software packages (CA_Markov, Dinamica EGO, Land Change Modeler, Metronamica) and analyse the options that they offer for uncertainty management. The models have been compared qualitatively, based on their structures and tools, and quantitatively, through a study case for the city of Cape Town. Results proved how each model conceptualised the modelled system in a different way, which led to different outputs. Statistical or automatic approaches did not provide higher repeatability or validation scores than user-driven approaches. The available options for uncertainty management vary depending on the model. Communication of uncertainties is poor across all models.

Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness and the European Social Fund [Ayudas para contratos predoctorales para la formacion de doctores 2014]

Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation [Ayudas para contratos Juan de la Cierva-for-macion] 2019-FJC2019-040043

University of Cape Town (Centre for Transport Studies)

European Commission INCERTIMAPS PGC2018-100770-B-100

University of Granada [Contratos Puente 2018]

Spanish Government