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The Future of Sensitivity Analysis: An essential discipline for systems modeling and policy support

Authors: Saman Razavi; Anthony Jakeman; Andrea Saltelli; Clémentine Prieur; Bertrand Iooss; Emanuele Borgonovo; Elmar Plischke; +19 Authors

The Future of Sensitivity Analysis: An essential discipline for systems modeling and policy support

Abstract

Sensitivity analysis (SA) is en route to becoming an integral part of mathematical modeling. The tremendous potential benefits of SA are, however, yet to be fully realized, both for advancing mechanistic and data-driven modeling of human and natural systems, and in support of decision making. In this perspective paper, a multidisciplinary group of researchers and practitioners revisit the current status of SA, and outline research challenges in regard to both theoretical frameworks and their applications to solve real-world problems. Six areas are discussed that warrant further attention, including (1) structuring and standardizing SA as a discipline, (2) realizing the untapped potential of SA for systems modeling, (3) addressing the computational burden of SA, (4) progressing SA in the context of machine learning, (5) clarifying the relationship and role of SA to uncertainty quantification, and (6) evolving the use of SA in support of decision making. An outlook for the future of SA is provided that underlines how SA must underpin a wide variety of activities to better serve science and society.

Countries
France, Norway, United Kingdom, Australia, Spain
Keywords

690, Environmental Engineering, anàlisi de sensibilitat, uncertainty quantification, presa de decisions, model validation and verification, 610, solidesa del model, validació i verificació del model, decision making, sensitivity analysis, [MATH.MATH-ST]Mathematics [math]/Statistics [math.ST], modelización matemática, aprendizaje automático, robustez del modelo, mathematical modelling, [MATH.MATH-ST] Mathematics [math]/Statistics [math.ST], apoyo a la política, análisis de sensibilidad, mathematical modeling, policy support, 620, aprenentatge automàtic, suport a les polítiques, machine learning, quantificació de la incertesa, modelització matemàtica, validación y verificación de modelos, model robustness, toma de decisiones, Sensitivity analysis, cuantificación de la incertidumbre

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selected citations
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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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