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Incorporating historical information in biosimilar trials: Challenges and a hybrid Bayesian‐frequentist approach

Incorporating historical information in biosimilar trials: challenges and a hybrid Bayesian-frequentist approach
Authors: Johanna Mielke; Heinz Schmidli; Byron Jones;

Incorporating historical information in biosimilar trials: Challenges and a hybrid Bayesian‐frequentist approach

Abstract

AbstractFor the approval of biosimilars, it is, in most cases, necessary to conduct large Phase III clinical trials in patients to convince the regulatory authorities that the product is comparable in terms of efficacy and safety to the originator product. As the originator product has already been studied in several trials beforehand, it seems natural to include this historical information into the showing of equivalent efficacy. Since all studies for the regulatory approval of biosimilars are confirmatory studies, it is required that the statistical approach has reasonable frequentist properties, most importantly, that the Type I error rate is controlled—at least in all scenarios that are realistic in practice. However, it is well known that the incorporation of historical information can lead to an inflation of the Type I error rate in the case of a conflict between the distribution of the historical data and the distribution of the trial data. We illustrate this issue and confirm, using the Bayesian robustified meta‐analytic‐predictive (MAP) approach as an example, that simultaneously controlling the Type I error rate over the complete parameter space and gaining power in comparison to a standard frequentist approach that only considers the data in the new study, is not possible. We propose a hybrid Bayesian‐frequentist approach for binary endpoints that controls the Type I error rate in the neighborhood of the center of the prior distribution, while improving the power. We study the properties of this approach in an extensive simulation study and provide a real‐world example.

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Keywords

biosimilarity, Clinical Trials as Topic, Biometry, Models, Statistical, Biosimilarity, Type I error rate, Equivalence tests, Bayesian inference, Bayesian approach, Bayes Theorem, Frequentist approach, Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis, frequentist approach, humira, type I error rate control, Humira, equivalence tests, Biosimilar Pharmaceuticals

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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