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Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
Article . 2016 . Peer-reviewed
License: Wiley Online Library User Agreement
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Does Amazonian deforestation cause global effects; can we be sure?

Authors: Lorenz, R.; Pitman, A. J.; Sisson, S. A.;

Does Amazonian deforestation cause global effects; can we be sure?

Abstract

AbstractDoes Amazonian deforestation cause global‐scale teleconnections in the physical climate system? Some previous studies suggest that complete Amazon deforestation triggers global effects in temperature or precipitation, but other experiments did not find these remote effects. Some all‐of‐tropics deforestation experiments also found teleconnections, while others did not. Differences between these studies include scale of deforestation, strength of land‐atmosphere coupling, and methods used for statistical testing. We examine how apparent teleconnections due to the biophysical impact of Amazonian deforestation vary with the scale of deforestation, how these teleconnections respond to the number of ensemble members, and which statistical methods effectively screen internal climate variability. We show that testing for field significance is crucial; no local statistical test can effectively screen all internal climate variability. The number of statistically significant grid points outside Amazonia does not scale with increased deforestation for most seasons, and we only find field significance for the largest perturbation. Hence, in our simulations we only find statistically significant remote effects from Amazonian deforestation for very large and unrealistic perturbations, but we would have found apparently significant changes for small perturbations had we not used multiple ensembles and field significance testing.

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Keywords

Teleconnections, Statistical testing, Deforestation, Field significance, Land cover change

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
39
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
bronze