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Tuned Forest Fire Prediction: Static Calibration of the Evolutionary Component of ‘ESS’

Authors: Bianchini, Germ´an; Caymes Scutari, Paola;

Tuned Forest Fire Prediction: Static Calibration of the Evolutionary Component of ‘ESS’

Abstract

Forest fires are a major risk factor with strong impact at eco-environmental and socio- economical levels, reasons why their study and modeling are very important. However, the models frequently have a certain level of uncertainty in some input parameters given that they must be approximated or estimated, as a consequence of diverse difficulties to accurately measure the conditions of the phenomenon in real time. This has resulted in the development of several methods for the uncertainty reduction, whose trade-off between accuracy and complexity can vary significantly. The system ESS (Evolutionary- Statistical System) is a method whose aim is to reduce the uncertainty, by combining Statistical Analysis, High Performance Computing (HPC) and Parallel Evolutionary Al- gorithms (PEAs). The PEAs use several parameters that require adjustment and that determine the quality of their use. The calibration of the parameters is a crucial task for reaching a good performance and to improve the system output. This paper presents an empirical study of the parameters tuning to evaluate the effectiveness of different configurations and the impact of their use in the Forest Fires prediction.

Keywords

Uncertainty Reduction, High Per-formance Computing, Algoritmos Evolutivos, Calibración de Parámetros, QA75.5-76.95, Parameters Calibration, Tuning, Reducción de Incertidumbre, Electronic computers. Computer science, https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1.2, Evolutionary Algorithms, Cómputo de Alto Rendimiento, https://purl.org/becyt/ford/1, Sintonización

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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gold