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Updating Variational Bayes: fast sequential posterior inference

Updating variational Bayes: fast sequential posterior inference
Authors: Nathaniel Tomasetti; Catherine S. Forbes; Anastasios Panagiotelis;

Updating Variational Bayes: fast sequential posterior inference

Abstract

Variational Bayesian (VB) methods produce posterior inference in a time frame considerably smaller than traditional Markov Chain Monte Carlo approaches. Although the VB posterior is an approximation, it has been shown to produce good parameter estimates and predicted values when a rich classes of approximating distributions are considered. In this paper we propose the use of recursive algorithms to update a sequence of VB posterior approximations in an online, time series setting, with the computation of each posterior update requiring only the data observed since the previous update. We show how importance sampling can be incorporated into online variational inference allowing the user to trade accuracy for a substantial increase in computational speed. The proposed methods and their properties are detailed in two separate simulation studies. Two empirical illustrations of the methods are provided, including one where a Dirichlet Process Mixture model with a novel posterior dependence structure is repeatedly updated in the context of predicting the future behaviour of vehicles on a stretch of the US Highway 101.

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Keywords

FOS: Computer and information sciences, Computer Science - Machine Learning, Stochastic approximation, forecasting, Dirichlet process mixture, Statistics - Computation, Machine Learning (cs.LG), importance sampling, 62-04, Econometric and statistical methods, Econometrics not elsewhere classified, Computational methods for problems pertaining to statistics, Computation (stat.CO), clustering, variational inference

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
3
Average
Average
Average
Green
bronze