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Shifts in Forest Species Composition and Abundance under Climate Change Scenarios in Southern Carpathian Romanian Temperate Forests

Authors: Juan García-Duro; Albert Ciceu; Serban Chivulescu; Ovidiu Badea; Mihai A. Tanase; Cristina Aponte;

Shifts in Forest Species Composition and Abundance under Climate Change Scenarios in Southern Carpathian Romanian Temperate Forests

Abstract

The structure and functioning of temperate forests are shifting due to changes in climate. Foreseeing the trajectory of such changes is critical to implementing adequate management practices and defining long-term strategies. This study investigated future shifts in temperate forest species composition and abundance expected to occur due to climate change. It also identified the ecological mechanisms underpinning such changes. Using an altitudinal gradient in the Romanian Carpathian temperate forests encompassing several vegetation types, we explored forest change using the Landis-II landscape model coupled with the PnET ecophysiological process model. We specifically assessed the change in biomass, forest production, species composition and natural disturbance impacts under three climate change scenarios, namely, RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. The results show that, over the short term (15 years), biomass across all forest types in the altitudinal gradient will increase, and species composition will remain unaltered. In contrast, over the medium and long terms (after 2040), changes in species composition will accelerate, with some species spreading (e.g., Abies alba Mill.) and others declining (e.g., Fagus sylvatica L.), particularly under the most extreme climate change scenario. Some forest types (e.g., Picea abies (L.) karst forests) in the Southern Carpathians will notably increase their standing biomass due to climate change, compared to other types, such as Quercus forests. Our findings suggest that climate change will alter the forest composition and species abundance, with some forests being particularly vulnerable to climate change, e.g., F. sylvatica forests. As far as productivity and forest composition changes are concerned, management practices should accommodate the new conditions in order to mitigate climate change impacts.

Countries
Spain, Australia
Keywords

580, Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all, 570, Take urgent action to combat climate change and its impacts, Forest biomass, LANDIS-II, Southern Carpathians, http://metadata.un.org/sdg/6, http://metadata.un.org/sdg/5, http://metadata.un.org/sdg/4, LANDIS-II; PnET; climate change; Southern Carpathians; forest biomass; production; species composition; species abundance; Romanian temperate forests, http://metadata.un.org/sdg/3, Achieve gender equality and empower all women and girls, PnET, Species composition, Climate change, Ensure inclusive and equitable quality education and promote lifelong learning opportunities for all, Romanian temperate forests, Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages, Production |

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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
views
OpenAIRE UsageCountsViews provided by UsageCounts
downloads
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18
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51
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