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Agriculture-aquaculture transitions on the lower Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta, 1972-2017

Authors: Small, Christopher; Sousa, Daniel;

Agriculture-aquaculture transitions on the lower Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta, 1972-2017

Abstract

Recent decades have seen a considerable increase in shrimp aquaculture in tropical and subtropical developing countries. This practice is controversial due to its potential for serious economic, food security, and environmental impacts. Of particular concern is the widespread practice of intensive aquaculture in and near mangrove ecosystems where many shrimp species spawn. However, while considerable effort has been directed toward understanding the effects of aquaculture, consistent and objective estimates of its past and present spatial extent are lacking. This is in part because of the challenge of distinguishing aquaculture ponds (ghers) from other types of standing water using satellite imagery. In this work, we use visible and infrared satellite imagery to map past and present extent of standing water areas on the lower Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta (GBD), one of the largest and most expansive areas of recent aquaculture growth on Earth. Spatial extent and expansion of aquaculture on the lower GBD are of particular interest because of the immediate proximity to the Sundarbans mangrove forest. Using MODIS 16-day EVI composites, we characterize the dominant spatiotemporal patterns in vegetation phenology of the area and identify consistent seasonal differences in visible and infrared reflectance between flooded ghers and other land uses. Using this information, we then quantify the expansion of standing water bodies on the GBD over the 45 year span of the Landsat image archive, 1972 – 2017. Considerable non-uniqueness exists in the spectral signature of ghers on the GBD, resulting in uncertainty in estimates of spatial extent. We use a spectral mixture model to estimate extent of standing water bodies with three progressive decision boundaries to explicitly show this uncertainty and provide liberal, moderate, and conservative estimates of flooded gher extent on three different spatial scales. Using this approach of multiple extents and multiple thresholds, we quantify the size distribution of contiguous regions of flooded gher extent at ten year intervals. Applying a moderate threshold, we find the area of standing water bodies within the administrative boundaries of the Bangladeshi polders to have expanded considerably from less than 300 km2 in 1990 to over 1400 km2 in 2015. At all three scales investigated, the size distribution of standing water bodies is increasingly dominated by larger, more interconnected networks of flooded areas associated with aquaculture. Much of this expansion has occurred in areas directly adjacent to the Bangladeshi Sundarbans.

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bepress|Physical Sciences and Mathematics, EarthArXiv|Physical Sciences and Mathematics|Environmental Sciences|Natural Resources Management and Policy, EarthArXiv|Physical Sciences and Mathematics|Environmental Sciences, bepress|Physical Sciences and Mathematics|Earth Sciences, EarthArXiv|Physical Sciences and Mathematics|Environmental Sciences|Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, EarthArXiv|Physical Sciences and Mathematics|Earth Sciences, bepress|Physical Sciences and Mathematics|Environmental Sciences|Natural Resources Management and Policy, Natural Resources and Conservation, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, EarthArXiv|Physical Sciences and Mathematics|Environmental Sciences|Other Environmental Sciences, bepress|Physical Sciences and Mathematics|Environmental Sciences, bepress|Physical Sciences and Mathematics|Environmental Sciences|Natural Resources and Conservation, bepress|Physical Sciences and Mathematics|Environmental Sciences|Sustainability, EarthArXiv|Physical Sciences and Mathematics|Environmental Sciences|Natural Resources and Conservation, Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, EarthArXiv|Physical Sciences and Mathematics|Environmental Sciences|Sustainability, EarthArXiv|Physical Sciences and Mathematics|Environmental Sciences|Environmental Monitoring, bepress|Physical Sciences and Mathematics|Earth Sciences|Other Earth Sciences, bepress|Physical Sciences and Mathematics|Environmental Sciences|Environmental Indicators and Impact Assessment, Natural Resources Management and Policy, Other Earth Sciences, bepress|Physical Sciences and Mathematics|Environmental Sciences|Environmental Monitoring, EarthArXiv|Physical Sciences and Mathematics, Sustainability, EarthArXiv|Physical Sciences and Mathematics|Earth Sciences|Other Earth Sciences, Earth Sciences, Other Environmental Sciences, bepress|Physical Sciences and Mathematics|Environmental Sciences|Other Environmental Sciences, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Monitoring

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
bronze