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Applied Energy
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Applied Energy
Article . 2021 . Peer-reviewed
License: Elsevier TDM
Data sources: Crossref
https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2020
License: CC BY NC ND
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A surrogate-model-based approach for estimating the first and second-order moments of offshore wind power

Authors: Behzad Golparvar; Petros Papadopoulos; Ahmed Aziz Ezzat; Ruo-Qian Wang;

A surrogate-model-based approach for estimating the first and second-order moments of offshore wind power

Abstract

Power curve is widely used in the wind industry to estimate power output for planning and operational purposes. Existing methods for power curve estimation have three main limitations: (i) they mostly rely on wind speed as the sole input, thus ignoring the secondary, yet possibly significant effects of other environmental factors, (ii) they largely overlook the complex marine environment in which offshore turbines operate, potentially compromising their value in offshore wind energy applications, and (ii) they solely focus on the first-order properties of wind power, with little (or null) information about the variation around the mean behavior, which is important for ensuring reliable grid integration, asset health monitoring, and energy storage, among others. This study investigates the impact of several wind- and wave-related factors on offshore wind power variability, with the ultimate goal of accurately predicting its first two moments. Our approach couples OpenFAST with Gaussian Process (GP) regression to reveal the underlying relationships governing offshore weather-to-power conversion. We first find that a multi-input power curve which captures the combined impact of wind speed, direction, and air density, can provide double-digit improvements relative to univariate methods which rely on wind speed as the sole explanatory variable (e.g. the standard method of bins). Wave-related variables are found not important for predicting the average power output, but interestingly, appear to be extremely relevant in describing the fluctuation of the offshore power around its mean. Tested on real-world data collected at the New York/New Jersey bight, our proposed multi-input models demonstrate a high explanatory power in predicting the first two moments of offshore wind generation, testifying their potential value to the offshore wind industry.

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Keywords

FOS: Computer and information sciences, Fluid Dynamics (physics.flu-dyn), FOS: Physical sciences, Applications (stat.AP), Physics - Fluid Dynamics, Statistics - Applications

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    influence
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    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
27
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
bronze