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handle: 2445/68484
El Modelo Lineal Generalizado (MLG) es un modelo estocástico con aplicación al cálculo de provisiones técnicas. El MLG tiene como caso particular el método determinista Chain-Ladder (CL), y permite calcular los errores cometidos en la predicción. Dichos errores posibilitan el cálculo de márgenes de solvencia con sentido estadístico, objetivo primordial en Solvencia II. En este artículo se estudi an las fórmulas de las reservas por años de calendario, las cuales permiten cálculos en un entorno financiero. Acompañando el estudio se incluye una aplicación de RExcel que calcula valores actuales para diferentes escenarios, con fórmulas analíticas o distribuciones predictivas.
Programari, Prediction theory, Teoria de la predicció, Models lineals (Estadística), Linear models (Statistics), Linear algebra, Computer software, Àlgebra lineal
Programari, Prediction theory, Teoria de la predicció, Models lineals (Estadística), Linear models (Statistics), Linear algebra, Computer software, Àlgebra lineal
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