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https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2024
License: arXiv Non-Exclusive Distribution
Data sources: Datacite
DBLP
Preprint . 2024
Data sources: DBLP
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Deconfounding Time Series Forecasting

Authors: Wentao Gao; Feiyu Yang; Mengze Hong; Xiaojing Du; Zechen Hu; Xiongren Chen; Ziqi Xu 0001;

Deconfounding Time Series Forecasting

Abstract

Time series forecasting is a critical task in various domains, where accurate predictions can drive informed decision-making. Traditional forecasting methods often rely on current observations of variables to predict future outcomes, typically overlooking the influence of latent confounders, unobserved variables that simultaneously affect both the predictors and the target outcomes. This oversight can introduce bias and degrade the performance of predictive models. In this study, we address this challenge by proposing an enhanced forecasting approach that incorporates representations of latent confounders derived from historical data. By integrating these confounders into the predictive process, our method aims to improve the accuracy and robustness of time series forecasts. The proposed approach is demonstrated through its application to climate science data, showing significant improvements over traditional methods that do not account for confounders.

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Keywords

FOS: Computer and information sciences, Computer Science - Machine Learning, Artificial Intelligence (cs.AI), Computer Science - Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning (cs.LG)

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average