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Pre-growth mortality of Abies cilicica trees and mortality models performance.

Authors: Carus, Serdar;

Pre-growth mortality of Abies cilicica trees and mortality models performance.

Abstract

In this study, we compared tree-growth rates (basal area increment) from recently dead and living Taurus fir (Abies cilicica Carr.) trees in the Kovada lake Forest of Isparta, Turkey. For each dead tree, tree-growth rates were analyzed for the presence of pre-death growth depressions in the study area (number of sample plots = 11) in 2006. However, we compared both the magnitude and rate of growth prior to death to a control (living) group of trees. Basal area increment (BAI) averaged substantially less during the last 10 years before death than for control trees. Trees that died started diverging in growth, on average, 50-60 years before death. About 18% of trees that died had chronically slow growth, 46% had pronounced declines in growth, whereas 36% had good growth up to death. However, tree-ring-based growth patterns of dead and living Taurus fir trees were compared and used 12 mortality models that were derived using logistic regression from growth patterns of tree-ring series as predictor variables. The four models with the highest overall performance correctly classified 43.8-56.3% of all dead trees and 75.0-87.5% of all living trees, and they predicted 25.0-43.8% of all dead trees to die within 0-15 years prior to the actual year of death.

Related Organizations
Keywords

580, Logistic Models, Abies, Models, Biological, Trees

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
1
Average
Average
Average
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