The aim of this paper is to analyze the effects of exchange rate volatility on international trade fl ows by using two different approaches, the panel data analysis and fuzzy logic, and to compare the results. To a panel with the crosssection dimension of 91 pairs of EU15 countries and with time ranging from 1964 to 2003, an extended gravity model of trade is applied in order to determine the effects of exchange rate volatility on bilateral trade fl ows of EU15 countries. The estimated impact is clearly negative, which indicates that exchange rate volatility has a negative infl uence on bilateral trade fl ows. Then, this traditional panel approach is contrasted with an alternative investigation based on fuzzy logic. The key elements of the fuzzy approach are to set fuzzy decision rules and to assign membership functions to the fuzzy sets intuitively based on experience. Both approaches yield very similar results and fuzzy approach is recommended to be used as a complement to statistical methods.

Cilj ovog rada je analizirati utjecaj volatilnosti tečaja na međunarodne trgovinske tijekove pomoću dva različita pristupa i to panel analize podataka i fuzzy logike, te potom usporediti rezultate. Prema platformi presjeka dimenzija 91 par EU15 zemlje s vremenskim rasponom 1964–2003. godine primjenjuje se prošireni gravitacijski model trgovine kako bi se utvrdili utjecaji volatilnosti tečaja na bilateralne trgovinske tijekove u zemljama EU15. Procijenjeni utjecaj je jasno negativan, što znači da volatilnost tečaja ima negativan utjecaj na bilateralne trgovinske tijekove. Potom, ovaj tradicionalni platformni pristup je u suprotnosti s alternativnom istragom temeljenom na fuzzy pristupu. Ključni elementi fuzzy pristupa su intuitivno postaviti fuzzy pravila odlučivanja i dodijeliti funkcije članstva fuzzy skupovima temeljem iskustva. Vidljivo je da oba pristupa daju vrlo slične rezultate, te se fuzzy pristup preporuča kao dopuna postojećih statističkih metoda.