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Endividamento externo e a crise do euro: uma análise dos desequilíbrios dos países deficitários

External debt and the euro crisis: an analysis of the imbalances of deficits countries
Authors: Parente, Miguel Chaves Gonçalves;

Endividamento externo e a crise do euro: uma análise dos desequilíbrios dos países deficitários

Abstract

A crise financeira internacional e a crise da Zona Euro afetaram severamente os países membros da União Económica e Monetária Europeia. Neste estudo descrevem-se os desequilíbrios que estiveram na origem daquela crise, com enfoque no papel do endividamento e dos défices externos dos países intervencionados na crise do euro. Identificam-se os períodos de recessão económica e analisa-se o desempenho económico desses países, nomeadamente Portugal, Espanha, Irlanda e Grécia, quantificando os custos da crise em termos de Produto Interno Bruto e emprego perdidos, bem como os seus processos de recuperação económica. Nesta dissertação relacionam-se os desequilíbrios da balança corrente com os custos de ajustamento, e os resultados obtidos sugerem que os países com défices de conta corrente tiveram custos mais elevados. Analisaram-se os fatores determinantes para a crise da dívida da Zona Euro estimando modelos logit, em que a variável dependente é uma variável dummy, que diferencia os países da Zona Euro que sofreram resgates financeiros dos restantes. Os resultados sugerem que o comportamento da poupança e do investimento são relevantes para a ocorrência de uma crise. Com base nestes resultados, analisa-se a relação entre a natureza do desequilíbrio externo daquelas quatro economias – isto é, se na sua origem esteve uma quebra da poupança, um aumento do investimento ou ambos – e os custos em termos de perda de produto e emprego, bem como a duração das crises económicas. Desta análise conclui-se que quando a crise tem na sua origem uma diminuição da poupança a recuperação é mais lenta.

The global financial crisis and the Euro Area crisis have strongly affected the countries of European Economic and Monetary Union. This dissertation describes the imbalances that were in the origin of that crisis, especially the external debt and the current account deficits of countries that were bailed out during the euro crisis. This work identifies business cycles dates and describes the economic behaviour, in terms of the variation in GDP and unemployment, of Portugal, Ireland, Spain and Greece, following the international financial crisis. This dissertation relates the current account imbalances with the adjustment costs and the results showed that current account deficits are associated with more costs. The determinants of the Euro Area crisis were analysed through an econometric model, where the dependent variable was a dummy that distinguishes the bailed out countries from the other countries. The results suggest that saving and investment are significant in explaining the likelihood of a country being bailed out. We also analyse the relation between the nature of the external imbalances – whether it was caused by a decrease in savings or an increase in investment or both – and the costs and duration of the economic crisis, in those four economies. Our conclusions suggest that when external imbalances and the financial crisis that followed are due to a decrease in savings, the economic recovery is slower.

Country
Portugal
Related Organizations
Keywords

Zona Euro, Défices, Euro Area, Deficits, Bailout countries, Resgates financeiros, Balança corrente, Current account

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
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