An acceptable maximum level of risk for the South African sardine resource has been calculated by comparing the depletion of the effective west component spawner biomass from the recent Operating Model being used to develop OMP-18 with the total spawner biomass from previous Operating Models used to develop earlier OMPs. This results in a risk level of approximately 15%. This risk level is higher than that considered acceptable in other countries, but may be argued to be acceptable given the risk to the sardine resource expected even under a no future catch scenario.