
The analysis of small area disease incidence has now developed to a degree where many methods have been proposed. However, there are few studies of the relative merits of the methods available. While many Bayesian models have been examined with respect to prior sensitivity, it is clear that wider comparisons of methods are largely missing from the literature. In this paper we present some preliminary results concerning the goodness-of-fit of a variety of disease mapping methods to simulated data for disease incidence derived from a range of models. These simulated models cover simple risk gradients to more complex true risk structures, including spatial correlation. The main general results presented here show that the gamma-Poisson exchangeable model and the Besag, York and Mollie (BYM) model are most robust across a range of diverse models. Mixture models are less robust. Non-parametric smoothing methods perform badly in general. Linear Bayes methods display behaviour similar to that of the gamma-Poisson methods.
Likelihood Functions, Models, Statistical, Statistics & Probability, Incidence, 0104 Statistics, 4202 Epidemiology, Bayes Theorem, 1117 Public Health and Health Services, 4905 Statistics, Germany, Maps, Lip Neoplasms, Humans, Poisson Distribution, Epidemiologic Methods, Algorithms, Maps as Topic
Likelihood Functions, Models, Statistical, Statistics & Probability, Incidence, 0104 Statistics, 4202 Epidemiology, Bayes Theorem, 1117 Public Health and Health Services, 4905 Statistics, Germany, Maps, Lip Neoplasms, Humans, Poisson Distribution, Epidemiologic Methods, Algorithms, Maps as Topic
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 155 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Top 1% | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% |
