
handle: 10852/96574
The income farmers receive from production fluctuates from year to year. The fragility of this income is why protectionist policies are implemented in developed countries, making agriculture on of the most distorted economic sectors. Protectionist policies secure a stable income for farmers but decrease the ability of other countries to compete on the global market. This is especially the case for developing countries, who are far more reliant on agriculture for their economic development. The European Union’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) was created after World War II as a response to food security issues after the war. The policy has been accused of ruining agricultural trading conditions in developing countries and has therefore been reformed several times. In 2005, income support for EU farmers were decoupled from production under a new income support, the Single Farm Payment. This new payment was not connected to the amount produced any more and was intended to mend the previous distortions of coupled income support to farmers. Scholars disagree whether decoupling had an effect, and if so, whether the impact of it was considerable. While some claim that developing countries are to blame for their own inability to compete, others view the whole CAP to be flawed because of the distortions it creates. Based on trade- and decoupling theory, the decoupling of payments would remove the incentive to produce excessively, and European farmers would adapt to market signals. Less competition on the global market would leave space for developing countries to enter, as they do not have a similar support system to that of the CAP. However, the actual effects of decoupling remain uncertain. This thesis tests whether decoupling had implications for global trade or not. By using statistics on production in the EU and exports from developing countries, it utilizes a fixed effects model to assess if there was a change before and after decoupling. The analysis compares changes in the agriculture sector to the mining sector, the latter functioning as a comparison group that would not have been affected by decoupling. I find partial support for decoupling having led to a decrease in production in the EU and no support for decoupling having increased exports from developing countries. The effects are hard to discern from other changes in the economy. Consequentially, the indicated implications on production in the EU are thus likely to be small.
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