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Wavelet Analysis Of Variance Risk Premium Spillovers

Authors: Cipollini, A; LO CASCIO, Iolanda; Muzzioli, S.;

Wavelet Analysis Of Variance Risk Premium Spillovers

Abstract

In this paper we construct a variance risk premium spillover index among France, Germany, UK, Switzerland and the US. The variance risk premium is measured by the difference between the difference between the (square) of implied volatility and expected realized variance of the stock market for next month. We also construct a spillover index for the constituents of the variance risk premium. The series under investigation exhibit long memory properties. The construction of a total spillover indicator suggested by Diebold-Yilmaz (2009) would then rely on modeling a fractionally integrated Vector Autoregressive Model, which might be subject to errors in specifying the correct lag length and the fractional differencing parameters. In order to avoid such misspecification errors, we employ wavelet analysis. In particular, we employ the Maximal Overlapping Transform and we compute the covariance matrix at different scales (associated to a frequency range). The spillover index is then obtained from the relative contribution of each (orthogonalized) shock to the variance of the other series at given scale, interpreted as a given investment time horizon.

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Italy
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Keywords

realized variance, spillover index, MODWT, long memory, Settore SECS-P/05 - Econometria, variance risk premium, implied variance, realized variance, long memory, MODWT, spillover index, variance risk premium, implied variance

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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