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Research . 2011
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La volatilidad de los precios de los commodities: el caso de los productos agrícolas

Authors: Doporto Miguez, Ivana; Michelena, Gabriel;

La volatilidad de los precios de los commodities: el caso de los productos agrícolas

Abstract

The recent rise in commodity prices and the increase in price volatility have aroused certain concern and controversy among the leaders of the major world powers and international organisations over the possibility that a new food crisis could break out. This paper intends to delve into some aspects of the phenomenon known as commodity price volatility. First, we study the relationship between volatility and financial markets. We can infer from the literature that the empirical evidence as regards this relationship is not conclusive. Secondly, we present an econometric model to analyse the main factors that would determine the volatility of a group of agricultural commodities: corn, wheat, sorghum, rice, soybean, soybean oil and sunflower oil. Among the main factors that would determine volatility we found: US inflation volatility and US interest rate volatility; weather conditions related to Pacific Ocean currents, the growth of emerging countries and the level of inventories available. Lastly, we intend to determine whether the price volatility of the commodities under study affects Argentine exports of these products.

Keywords

Rohstoffpreis, ddc:330, Volatilität, Agrarpreis, Finanzmarkt

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
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