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Forecasting large datasets with reduced rank multivariate models

Authors: Andrea Carriero; George Kapetanios; Massimiliano Marcellino;

Forecasting large datasets with reduced rank multivariate models

Abstract

The paper addresses the issue of forecasting a large set of variables using multivariate models. In particular, we propose three alternative reduced rank forecasting models and compare their predictive performance with the most promising existing alternatives, namely, factor models, large scale bayesian VARs, and multivariate boosting. Specifically, we focus on classical reduced rank regression, a two-step procedure that applies, in turn, shrinkage and reduced rank restrictions, and the reduced rank bayesian VAR of Geweke (1996). As a result, we found that using shrinkage and rank reduction in combination rather than separately improves substantially the accuracy of forecasts, both when the whole set of variables is to be forecast, and for key variables such as industrial production growth, inflation, and the federal funds rate.

Country
Italy
Related Organizations
Keywords

Bayesian VARs, Factor models, Forecasting, Reduced rank, ddc:330, Reduced rank, Bayesian VARs, Factor models, Bayes-Statistik, C13, Multivariate Analyse, Ranking-Verfahren, Prognoseverfahren, C53, C11, C33, Forecasting, jel: jel:C53, jel: jel:C13, jel: jel:C11, jel: jel:C33

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
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