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EconStor
Research . 2015
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Dynamics of real per capita GDP

Authors: Daniel Neuhoff;

Dynamics of real per capita GDP

Abstract

This study investigates the dynamics of quarterly real GDP per capita growth rates across four countries, the US, UK, Canada and France. I obtain estimates for ARIMA(p,q) processes for first differences of log quarterly real GDP per capita using Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo, allowing me to account for model uncertainty when comparing the implied impulse responses across countries. The results are checked for robustness with respect to the detrending device. The estimated impulse response functions are different in shape. The persistence estimates for the US, France, Canada and Italy are clustered together, while the UK and Japan are clear outliers. Significant posterior uncertainty remains regarding the persistence estimates and the appropriate ARMA models. The results for the UK is sensitive to the time period. An analysis of the components of GDP for the US suggests that the dynamics are mainly driven by consumption.

Country
Germany
Related Organizations
Keywords

ddc:330, Real GDP per capita, 330 Wirtschaft, ddc:310, 310 Sammlungen allgemeiner Statistiken, Growth Rates, Persistence, ARMA; Real GDP per capita; Growth Rates; Persistence; Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo, C51, C52, Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo, ARMA, E32, jel: jel:C52, jel: jel:C51, jel: jel:E32

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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