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Master thesis . 2022
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A transformada de Fourier e a probabilidade de ruína

Authors: Lima, Maria de Fátima Dantas Pires de;

A transformada de Fourier e a probabilidade de ruína

Abstract

As propriedades da transformada de Laplace conduziram à sua adopção como um dos instrumentos predilectos da teoria da ruína, pois facilitam a dedução de um vasto conjunto de resultados importantes. Partindo deste facto e da existência de uma fórmula simples e geral para a inversão da transformada de Fourier, que apresenta um conjunto interessante de propriedades, é possível calcular de forma numérica alguns resultados importantes na teoria da ruína. Apresentamos, assim, neste trabalho o cálculo da probabilidade de ruína eventual, quer no modelo clássico de risco (modelo de Poisson Composto), quer num outro modelo em que o processo de ocorrência de sinistros é um processo de renovamento, em particular consideramos que o tempo de ocorrência inter-sinistros segue uma distribuição Erlang(2). Procede-se ainda ao cálculo da probabilidade e gravidade de ruína, no caso do processo de indemnizações agregadas corresponder a um processo de Poisson composto.

The Laplace transform and its properties has became a key instrument for the inference of an important set of results in rum n theory. Taking this into account and the existence of a simple and general formula to invert the Fourier transform, that presents a set of interesting properties, it's possible to obtain, numerically, some important results of ruin theory. As a result of that we compute the probability of ultimate rum n for two models: the classical risk model (compound Poisson Process) and a model where claim inter-arrival times have an Erlang(2) distribution. We also introduce the computation of the probability and severity of rum n when the total claims process is by assumption a compound Poisson process.

info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersion

Mestrado em Ciências Actuariais

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Portugal
Keywords

Gravidade de Ruína, Probability of Ultimate Ruin, Fourier Transform, Teoria da Ruína, Ruin Theory, Transformada de Fourier, Probabilidade de Sobrevivência, Probability of Ultimate Survival, Erlang(2) Risk Processes, Probabilidade de Ruína Eventual, Processo de Risco Erlang(2), Severity of Ruin

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selected citations
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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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