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Análisis de series temporales con modelos ARIMA

Authors: Paz Pintor, Manuel;

Análisis de series temporales con modelos ARIMA

Abstract

En este Trabajo de Fin de Grado se introducen los principales conceptos del análisis de series temporales con modelos clásicos. Se realiza un estudio teórico de los modelos comenzando con los modelos más simples (modelos autorregresivos y modelos de medias móviles) y finalizando con los modelos autorregresivos de medias móviles integrados con estacionalidad. El estudio teórico se centra principalmente en el análisis de las hipótesis de estacionaridad e invertibilidad de la serie, así como en el análisis de los coeficientes de autocorrelación, los cuales son la principal herramienta para identificar el modelo dada una realización de la serie temporal. Los conceptos explicados en el estudio teórico se ilustran después en un estudio de simulación y en un ejemplo de identificación y ajuste del modelo utilizando una serie de datos reales.

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Spain
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Green