The Catalan Sea, located between the eastern Iberian coast and the Balearic Islands, is a representative portion of the western Mediterranean basin and provides a valuable case study for climate change effects on Mediterranean ecosystems. Global warming is reflected regionally by a rise in sea level over the last century, an increase in surface temperature of around 1.1°C in the last 35 yr, a progressive salinisation of intermediate and deep waters and a strengthening of the stratification. A likely scenario of what we can expect in the Mediterranean Sea is a considerable decrease in rainfall and wind, warmer surface waters and a prolonged stratification period. The effects on Mediterranean ecosystems are evident in: (1) a meridionalisation of the algal, invertebrate and vertebrate species, which favours the more thermophilic species over the temperate species; (2) mass mortality events of sessile invertebrates of the coralligenous communities owing to anomalous warm waters during the period when food is scarce; (3) increases in the smallest phytoplankton due to the prolongation of the water stratification period; (4) proliferation of gelatinous carnivores, including jellyfish, due to the temperature rise and the lack of rainfall; (5) a faster acidification of seawater, compared with the global oceans, accompanied by a decrease in the capacity to absorb atmospheric CO2. In order to anticipate and mitigate these predicted changes, we recommend investing in research and observation, conserving areas that serve as indicators of climate change and reducing other anthropogenic pressures such as habitat destruction, overfishing or pollution, which may act synergistically to accelerate these changes

E.C., C.P., M.R. and R.C. acknowledge funding from the Spanish Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación through grants CTM2009-08849/MAR, CTM2006-01463 and CGL2007-66757-C02-01/BOS and a Ramón y Cajal contract to E.C. This paper is a contribution from the Marine Biogeochemistry and Global Change research group, funded by Generalitat de Catalunya (Catalan Government) through grant 2009SGR142

29 pagex, 9 figures, 2 tables

Peer reviewed