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Environmental Research Letters
Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY
Data sources: Crossref
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Environmental Research Letters
Article . 2023
Data sources: DOAJ
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DIGITAL.CSIC
Article . 2025 . Peer-reviewed
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Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models

Authors: Norman J Steinert; Matvey V Debolskiy; Eleanor J Burke; Félix García-Pereira; Hanna Lee;

Evaluating permafrost definitions for global permafrost area estimates in CMIP6 climate models

Abstract

Abstract Global permafrost regions are undergoing significant changes due to global warming, whose assessments often rely on permafrost extent estimates derived from climate model simulations. These assessments employ a range of definitions for the presence of permafrost, leading to inconsistencies in the calculation of permafrost area. Here, we present permafrost area calculations using 10 different definitions for detecting permafrost presence based on either ground thermodynamics, soil hydrology, or air–ground coupling from an ensemble of 32 Earth system models. We find that variations between permafrost-presence definitions result in substantial differences of up to 18 million km2, where any given model could both over- or underestimate the present-day permafrost area. Ground-thermodynamic-based definitions are, on average, comparable with observations but are subject to a large inter-model spread. The associated uncertainty of permafrost area estimates is reduced in definitions based on ground–air coupling. However, their representation of permafrost area strongly depends on how each model represents the ground–air coupling processes. The definition-based spread in permafrost area can affect estimates of permafrost-related impacts and feedbacks, such as quantifying permafrost carbon changes. For instance, the definition spread in permafrost area estimates can lead to differences in simulated permafrost-area soil carbon changes of up to 28%. We therefore emphasize the importance of consistent and well-justified permafrost-presence definitions for robust projections and accurate assessments of permafrost from climate model outputs.

Countries
Spain, Norway
Keywords

soil thermodynamics, 550, Science, QC1-999, Permafrost, Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, Ground temperatures, GE1-350, TD1-1066, frozen ground, ground temperatures, Frozen ground, Physics, Q, 500, Earth system models, cryosphere, Soil thermodynamics, Environmental sciences, Cryosphere, permafrost

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
17
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
gold