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handle: 10261/337870
The study of marine heat waves as extreme temperature events has a wide range of applications, from a gauge for ecological and socioeconomic impact to a climate change indicator. Various definitions of marine heat waves as extreme sea temperature events exist to account for its broad applicability, with statistical definitions based on percentile based thresholds being widespread in its use. Using satellite and model data of the Mediterranean Sea, we analyze the statistical implications of choosing baseline climatological periods for threshold delineation, which are either fixed in the past or shifted in time. We show that in the context of a warming Mediterranean Sea, using a fixed baseline leads to a saturation of marine heat wave days that compromises the significance of this marine indicator, with 90% of climate models analyzed predicting an average above 189 marine heat wave days per year by 2050 even for the lowest emission scenario. We argue that only with a moving baseline, can we reach a definition for marine heat waves which yield consistently rare extreme events.
Science, Q, Sea surface temperature, General. Including nature conservation, geographical distribution, QH1-199.5, Marine heat wave, Baseline period, sea surface temperature, marine heat wave, Mediterranean Sea, extreme event, baseline period, Extreme event, CMIP6
Science, Q, Sea surface temperature, General. Including nature conservation, geographical distribution, QH1-199.5, Marine heat wave, Baseline period, sea surface temperature, marine heat wave, Mediterranean Sea, extreme event, baseline period, Extreme event, CMIP6
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 23 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Average | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% |
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