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Non-linear models for black carbon exposure modelling using air pollution datasets

Authors: Rovira, J.; Paredes-Ahumada, J.A.; Barceló-Ordinas, J.M.; García-Vidal, J.; Reche, C.; Sola, Y.; Fung, P.L.; +3 Authors

Non-linear models for black carbon exposure modelling using air pollution datasets

Abstract

Black carbon (BC) is a product of incomplete combustion, present in urban aerosols and sourcing mainly from road traffic. Epidemiological evidence reports positive associations between BC and cardiovascular and respiratory disease. Despite this, BC is currently not regulated by the EU Air Quality Directive, and as a result BC data are not available in urban areas from reference air quality monitoring networks in many countries. To fill this gap, a machine learning approach is proposed to develop a BC proxy using air pollution datasets as an input. The proposed BC proxy is based on two machine learning models, support vector regression (SVR) and random forest (RF), using observations of particle mass and number concentrations (N), gaseous pollutants and meteorological variables as the input. Experimental data were collected from a reference station in Barcelona (Spain) over a 2-year period (2018-2019). Two months of additional data were available from a second urban site in Barcelona, for model validation. BC concentrations estimated by SVR showed a high degree of correlation with the measured BC concentrations (R2 = 0.828) with a relatively low error (RMSE = 0.48 μg/m3). Model performance was dependent on seasonality and time of the day, due to the influence of new particle formation events. When validated at the second station, performance indicators decreased (R2 = 0.633; RMSE = 1.19 μg/m3) due to the lack of N data and PM2.5 and the smaller size of the dataset (2 months). New particle formation events critically impacted model performance, suggesting that its application would be optimal in environments where traffic is the main source of ultrafine particles. Due to its flexibility, it is concluded that the model can act as a BC proxy, even based on EU-regulatory air quality parameters only, to complement experimental measurements for exposure assessment in urban areas.

Countries
Spain, Spain, Finland
Keywords

Fume control, Novel parameters, Àrees temàtiques de la UPC::Informàtica::Aplicacions de la informàtica, 550, URBAN, http://metadata.un.org/sdg/3, Virtual sensor, Absorption, Input-adaptive, Fum -- Control, :Informàtica::Aplicacions de la informàtica [Àrees temàtiques de la UPC], Soot, Conjunts de dades, Air Pollution, PARTICLE FORMATION, Ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all at all ages, Aire -- Qualitat -- Gestió, Air quality management, Aerosols, SITES, Air Pollutants, DIESEL, Aire -- Contaminació, Human health, AEROSOL, Carbon, Physical sciences, Nonlinear Dynamics, Data gaps, Particulate Matter, USE REGRESSION-MODEL, Data sets, Salut urbana, Urban health, Air -- Pollution, Environmental Monitoring

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selected citations
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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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