Coastal lobsters support important fsheries all over the world, but there is evidence that climate-induced changes may jeopardize some stocks. Here we present the frst global forecasts of changes in coastal lobster species distribution under climate change, using an ensemble of ecological niche models (ENMs). Global changes in richness were projected for 125 coastal lobster species for the end of the century, using a stabilization scenario (4.5 RCP). We compared projected changes in diversity with lobster fsheries data and found that losses in suitable habitat for coastal lobster species were mainly projected in areas with high commercial fshing interest, with species projected to contract their climatic envelope between 40 and 100%. Higher losses of spiny lobsters are projected in the coasts of wider Caribbean/Brazil, eastern Africa and Indo-Pacifc region, areas with several directed fsheries and aquacultures, while clawed lobsters are projected to shifts their envelope to northern latitudes likely afecting the North European, North American and Canadian fsheries. Fisheries represent an important resource for local and global economies and understanding how they might be afected by climate change scenarios is paramount when developing specifc or regional management strategies.

The Portuguese Foundation for Science and Technology (FCT) supported this study through a PhD grant (SFRH/BD/51514/2011) to JBP and a Senior Research Position (FCT Development Grant 2013) to RR. MBA acknowledges the Integrated Program of IC&DT Call no. 1/SAESCTN/ALENT-07-0224-FEDER-001755 for support of his research.

Peer Reviewed