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AbstractAbrupt transitions are ubiquitous in the dynamics of complex systems. Finding precursors, i.e. early indicators of their arrival, is fundamental in many areas of science ranging from electrical engineering to climate. However, obtaining warnings of an approaching transition well in advance remains an elusive task. Here we show that a functional network, constructed from spatial correlations of the system’s time series, experiences a percolation transition way before the actual system reaches a bifurcation point due to the collective phenomena leading to the global change. Concepts from percolation theory are then used to introduce early warning precursors that anticipate the system’s tipping point. We illustrate the generality and versatility of our percolation-based framework with model systems experiencing different types of bifurcations and with Sea Surface Temperature time series associated to El Niño phenomenon.
Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Multidisciplinary, Statistical Mechanics (cond-mat.stat-mech), Physics - Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph), FOS: Physical sciences, Condensed Matter - Statistical Mechanics, Article, Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability (physics.data-an)
Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, Multidisciplinary, Statistical Mechanics (cond-mat.stat-mech), Physics - Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics (physics.ao-ph), FOS: Physical sciences, Condensed Matter - Statistical Mechanics, Article, Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability (physics.data-an)
| selected citations These citations are derived from selected sources. This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | 19 | |
| popularity This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% | |
| influence This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically). | Top 10% | |
| impulse This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network. | Top 10% |
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