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Modelando heterogeneidade n˜ao observ´avel em probabilidades de captura-recaptura

Authors: Monteiro, J.F.G.; Alpizar-Jara, R.;

Modelando heterogeneidade n˜ao observ´avel em probabilidades de captura-recaptura

Abstract

Os modelos de captura-recaptura tˆem sido largamente utilizados para estimar o tamanho de popula¸c˜oes animais. O presente trabalho incidir´a sobre o caso dos modelos em popula¸c˜oes fechadas, que pressup˜oe que o n´umero de indiv´ıduos na popula¸c˜ao permanece constante durante o per´ıodo de estudo. Um estimador para o tamanho da popula¸c˜ao pode ser enviesado se n˜ao for considerada heterogeneidade nas probabilidades de captura, relativa `as caracter´ısticas inerentes dos indiv´ıduos, que s˜ao dif´ıceis de medir ou n˜ao observ´aveis. Este tipo de problema tem sido tradicionalmente abordado mediante os modelos de captura-recaptura para popula ¸c˜oes fechadas, designados por Mh e Mth. Neste trabalho ser´a utilizado regress˜ao log´ıstica para modelar a heterogeneidade observ´avel nas probabilidades de captura dos indiv´ıduos na popula¸c˜ao utilizando covari´aveis e a heterogeneidade n˜ao observ´avel ser´a modelada atrav´es do efeito aleat´orio, utilizando a inferˆencia bayesiana. As estimativas das probabilidades de captura s˜ao utilizadas para estimar o tamanho da popula¸c˜ao. Comparam-se os estimadores dos modelos Mth, quando se modela apenas heterogeneidade observ´avel e quando ´e modelada a heterogeneidade observ´avel e n˜ao observ´avel. Este trabalho ´e ilustrado com um exemplo pr´atico.

Country
Portugal
Related Organizations
Keywords

regressão logística, inferência bayesiana, captura-recaptura, heterogeneidade

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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