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Predicción con datos faltantes: aplicación a un caso real

Authors: Delicado, Pedro;

Predicción con datos faltantes: aplicación a un caso real

Abstract

En este artículo se realiza un estudio comparativo de modelos lineales y modelos mixtos, mezcla de un componente lineal y un componente no lineal en la parte estacional, para predecir la altura significativa de ola. Los datos proceden de una boya situada en el mar Cantábrico que registra la altura de ola cada tres horas. El interés central es obtener predicciones a corto plazo, dos días, que permitan advertir del estado de mar a los puertos. El principal problema que presenta esta serie para su modelización es el alto porcentaje de datos faltantes. Se completa la serie con un interpolador lineal óptimo, en el sentido de minimizar el error cuadrático medio.

Keywords

Modelos ARIMA, Suavizado no paramétrico, Interpolación lineal, Altura significativa de olas, Estadística, Error cuadrático medio

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selected citations
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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
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impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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