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Recolector de Ciencia Abierta, RECOLECTA
Doctoral thesis . 2011
License: CC BY NC ND
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Recolector de Ciencia Abierta, RECOLECTA
Doctoral thesis . 2003 . Peer-reviewed
License: CC BY NC ND
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Valoración y gestión de riesgos en mercados eléctricos liberalizados

Authors: Villaplana Conde, Pablo;

Valoración y gestión de riesgos en mercados eléctricos liberalizados

Abstract

Esta Tesis Doctoral analiza el comportamiento del precio de la electricidad en mercados eléctricos liberalizados, así como el desarrollo de modelos de valoración de derivados eléctricos. El cuerpo central de esta Tesis Doctoral está formado por tres artículos independientes. En el primer capítulo, se presenta un modelo eco no métrico para las series de precios, que captura simultáneamente la posible presencia de varios factores: estacionalidad, reversión a la media, heterocedasticidad (GARCH) y saltos (dependientes en el tiempo). Posteriormente se propone un modelo para la valoración de contratos de futuros eléctricos que incorpore la posibilidad de saltos. La modelización propuesta introduce la posibilidad de saltos en una de las variables de estado y permite obtener fórmulas analíticas para el precio de futuros. Los resultados del modelo muestran la importancia de la prima de riesgo por salto. Finalmente, se propone un modelo de valoración de derivados donde las variables relevantes son la demanda y la capacidad de generación (oferta). Se obtienen fórmulas analíticas de valoración y se analizan los efectos de las variables de estado sobre el precio del contrato de futuro y sobre la prima de riesgo.

Country
Spain
Related Organizations
Keywords

5302 02 (Cód. UNESCO), 5312 05 (Cód. UNESCO), Contrato de futuros, Industria eléctrica, Liberalización económica, 5311 02 (Cód. UNESCO), Modelo econométrico, Economía, Empresa

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selected citations
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This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
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