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Estimation of common percentile of rainfall datasets in Thailand using delta-lognormal distributions

تقدير النسبة المئوية المشتركة لمجموعات بيانات هطول الأمطار في تايلاند باستخدام التوزيعات الدلتا المعرفية
Authors: Warisa Thangjai; Sa‐Aat Niwitpong; Suparat Niwitpong;

Estimation of common percentile of rainfall datasets in Thailand using delta-lognormal distributions

Abstract

Weighted percentiles in many areas can be used to investigate the overall trend in a particular context. In this article, the confidence intervals for the common percentile are constructed to estimate rainfall in Thailand. The confidence interval for the common percentile help to indicate intensity of rainfall. Herein, four new approaches for estimating confidence intervals for the common percentile of several delta-lognormal distributions are presented: the fiducial generalized confidence interval, the adjusted method of variance estimates recovery, and two Bayesian approaches using fiducial quantity and approximate fiducial distribution. The Monte Carlo simulation was used to evaluate the coverage probabilities and average lengths via the R statistical program. The proposed confidence intervals are compared in terms of their coverage probabilities and average lengths, and the results of a comparative study based on these metrics indicate that one of the Bayesian confidence intervals is better than the others. The efficacies of the approaches are also illustrated by applying them to daily rainfall datasets from various regions in Thailand.

Keywords

Statistics and Probability, Artificial intelligence, QH301-705.5, Confidence intervals, Social Sciences, Bayesian probability, Common percentile, Coverage probability, Context (archaeology), Skew Distributions and Applications in Statistics, FOS: Mathematics, Computer Simulation, Biology (General), Fiducial marker, Bayesian approaches, Probability, Global and Planetary Change, Fiducial generalized confidence interval, Models, Statistical, Geography, Adjusted method of variance estimates recovery, Confidence interval, Statistics, R, Log-normal distribution, Bayes Theorem, Realized Volatility, Thailand, Computer science, Monte Carlo method, Economics, Econometrics and Finance, Credible interval, Archaeology, Modeling and Forecasting Financial Volatility, Global Drought Monitoring and Assessment, Environmental Science, Physical Sciences, Robust confidence intervals, Medicine, Percentile, Simulation, Mathematics, Finance

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
5
Top 10%
Average
Top 10%
Green
gold