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Predicting Brazilian Court Decisions

Authors: André Lage-Freitas; Héctor Allende-Cid; Orivaldo Santana; Lívia de Oliveira-Lage;

Predicting Brazilian Court Decisions

Abstract

Predicting case outcomes is useful for legal professionals to understand case law, file a lawsuit, raise a defense, or lodge appeals, for instance. However, it is very hard to predict legal decisions since this requires extracting valuable information from myriads of cases and other documents. Moreover, legal system complexity along with a huge volume of litigation make this problem even harder. This paper introduces an approach to predicting Brazilian court decisions, including whether they will be unanimous. Our methodology uses various machine learning algorithms, including classifiers and state-of-the-art Deep Learning models. We developed a working prototype whose F1-score performance is ~80.2% by using 4,043 cases from a Brazilian court. To our knowledge, this is the first study to present methods for predicting Brazilian court decision outcomes.

Keywords

Social and Information Networks (cs.SI), FOS: Computer and information sciences, Legal informatics, Computer Science - Computation and Language, Jurimetrics, Computer Science - Social and Information Networks, QA75.5-76.95, Litigation prediction, Artificial Intelligence, Predictive algorithms, Electronic computers. Computer science, Law, Computation and Language (cs.CL), Legal outcome forecast

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    selected citations
    These citations are derived from selected sources.
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    38
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 10%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 10%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 1%
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
38
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 1%
Green
gold