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Inferential statistics as descriptive statistics: there is no replication crisis if we don't expect replication

Authors: Amrhein, Valentin; Trafimow, David; Greenland, Sander;

Inferential statistics as descriptive statistics: there is no replication crisis if we don't expect replication

Abstract

Statistical inference often fails to replicate. One reason is that many results may be selected for drawing inference because some threshold of a statistic like the P-value was crossed, leading to biased reported effect sizes. Nonetheless, considerable non-replication is to be expected even without selective reporting, and generalizations from single studies are rarely if ever warranted. Honestly reported results must vary from replication to replication because of varying assumption violations and random variation; excessive agreement itself would suggest deeper problems, such as failure to publish results in conflict with group expectations or desires. A general perception of a "replication crisis" may thus reflect failure to recognize that statistical tests not only test hypotheses, but countless assumptions and the entire environment in which research takes place. Because of all the uncertain and unknown assumptions that underpin statistical inferences, we should treat inferential statistics as highly unstable local descriptions of relations between assumptions and data, rather than as generalizable inferences about hypotheses or models. And that means we should treat statistical results as being much more incomplete and uncertain than is currently the norm. Acknowledging this uncertainty could help reduce the allure of selective reporting: Since a small P-value could be large in a replication study, and a large P-value could be small, there is simply no need to selectively report studies based on statistical results. Rather than focusing our study reports on uncertain conclusions, we should thus focus on describing accurately how the study was conducted, what problems occurred, what data were obtained, what analysis methods were used and why, and what output those methods produced.

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    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    297
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 0.1%
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Top 1%
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Top 0.1%
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
297
Top 0.1%
Top 1%
Top 0.1%
Green
hybrid
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