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Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences
Article . 2014 . Peer-reviewed
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Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences
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Manufacturing Output in Romania: an ARDL Approach

Authors: A. Neyran ORHUNBİLGE;

Manufacturing Output in Romania: an ARDL Approach

Abstract

This paper empirically investigates manufacturing output function for Romania by using the quarterly time series data during the period 2000q1-2013q4. Research variables are manufacturing production index, labor cost index, producer energy price index, interest rate, exchange rate and a time dummy variable measuring the effect of Romania’s participation to European Union. Long-run and short-run elasticities of variables were examined using the bounds testing cointegration method proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001). Results of the analysis show that Romania has a long run cointegration. The dynamic error correction model for Romania is found and subsequently long-run and short-run elasticity coefficients are explored by using ARDL model. It is detected that logs of energy price index, labor cost index and interest rates have a substantial long-run effect on the log of manufacturing production index with respective long-run elasticity coefficients of -0.51% (LNEPI), 0.57% (LNLCI) and -0.05% (for LNINR). Log of exchange rates does not have a long-run effect on the log of manufacturing production index. Causality test using the Toda and Yamamoto (1995) Granger non-causality procedure was employed in order to examine Granger causalities between variables and unidirectional Granger causalities as (LNLCI→LNMPI) , (LNINR→LNMPI), (LNEXR→LNINR) and (LNEPI→LNMPI) are detected. CUSUM and CUSUMSQ stability tests on hypothesized manufacturing output function were also implemented. DOI: 10.5901/mjss.2014.v5n22p342

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
2
Average
Average
Average
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