
We consider exchangeable Markov multi-state survival processes -- temporal processes taking values over a state-space$\mathcal{S}$ with at least one absorbing failure state $\flat \in \mathcal{S}$ that satisfy natural invariance properties of exchangeability and consistency under subsampling. The set of processes contains many well-known examples from health and epidemiology -- survival, illness-death, competing risk, and comorbidity processes; an extension leads to recurrent event processes. We characterize exchangeable Markov multi-state survival processes in both discrete and continuous time. Statistical considerations impose natural constraints on the space of models appropriate for applied work. In particular, we describe constraints arising from the notion of composable systems. We end with an application of the developed models to irregularly sampled and potentially censored multi-state survival data, developing a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm for posterior computation.
FOS: Computer and information sciences, composable systems, Reliability and life testing, Censored data models, multi-state survival process, exchangeability, Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis, Applications of Markov chains and discrete-time Markov processes on general state spaces (social mobility, learning theory, industrial processes, etc.), Methodology (stat.ME), Markov chain Monte Carlo, Markov process, Computational methods for problems pertaining to statistics, Statistics - Methodology
FOS: Computer and information sciences, composable systems, Reliability and life testing, Censored data models, multi-state survival process, exchangeability, Applications of statistics to biology and medical sciences; meta analysis, Applications of Markov chains and discrete-time Markov processes on general state spaces (social mobility, learning theory, industrial processes, etc.), Methodology (stat.ME), Markov chain Monte Carlo, Markov process, Computational methods for problems pertaining to statistics, Statistics - Methodology
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