Several recent studies have predicted decreased environmental suitability for species in future scenarios of climate change, which will affect the economy of many municipalities. The aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of global climate change on environmental suitability for “Pequi” tree (Caryocar brasiliense; an economically important Cerrado fruit tree) and investigate the relationship between environmental suitability (according to an ecological niche model ENM) and production of “Pequi” fruit in Brazilian cities. For the ENM, we used 312 occurrence points of “Pequi” tree and nine climatic variables to model current distribution and project it into future scenarios (scenario A2a for CCCma AOGCM). “Pequi” production averaged 30.89 kg/km2, and the Gross Internal Product at municipal level and “Pequi” production were negatively but marginally correlated (r = -0.16; P = 0.05 using Dutilleul’s correction for spatial autocorrelation), suggesting that poor municipalities tend to have more use of this natural resource. Future scenarios showed large losses of suitable environments for the species in 2050 in Central Brazil. There is also a significant positive correlation between environmental suitability in current time and “Pequi” production across municipalities (r = 0.382, P = 0.032). Our results suggest that municipality currently using “Pequi” fruit will have lower production in the future, because their regions will be less suitable for “Pequi” tree, which in turn may affect the local economies. Thus, it is necessary that governments develop policies that mitigate adverse impacts, enhance positive impacts, and supports adaptation to climate change, together with enhancing local food security.