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Nonparametric Bayesian inference for Gamma-type Lévy subordinators

Authors: Belomestny, Denis; Gugushvili, Shota; Schauer, Moritz; Spreij, Peter;

Nonparametric Bayesian inference for Gamma-type Lévy subordinators

Abstract

Given discrete time observations over a growing time interval, we consider a nonparametric Bayesian approach to estimation of the Lévy density of a Lévy process belonging to a flexible class of infinite activity subordinators. Posterior inference is performed via MCMC, and we circumvent the problem of the intractable likelihood via the data augmentation device, that in our case relies on bridge process sampling via Gamma process bridges. Our approach also requires the use of a new infinite-dimensional form of a reversible jump MCMC algorithm. We show that our method leads to good practical results in challenging simulation examples. On the theoretical side, we establish that our nonparametric Bayesian procedure is consistent: in the low frequency data setting, with equispaced in time observations and intervals between successive observations remaining fixed, the posterior asymptotically, as the sample size $n\rightarrow\infty$, concentrates around the Lévy density under which the data have been generated. Finally, we test our method on a classical insurance dataset.

Country
Netherlands
Keywords

θ-subordinator, Applications of statistics to actuarial sciences and financial mathematics, FOS: Computer and information sciences, 330, Data augmentation, Nonparametric Bayesian estimation, MCMC, Gamma process, Posterior consistency, gamma process, Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, posterior consistency, reversible jump MCMC, Mathematics - Statistics Theory, Statistics Theory (math.ST), Processes with independent increments; Lévy processes, 510, Methodology (stat.ME), bridge sampling, Asymptotic properties of nonparametric inference, FOS: Mathematics, Stochastics, Subordinator, Statistics - Methodology, Lévy process, Bridge sampling, Reversible jump MCMC, subordinator, Lévy density, Primary: 62G20, Secondary: 62M30, \(\theta\)-subordinator, Mathematik, nonparametric Bayesian estimation, Nonparametric estimation, Mathematics, data augmentation

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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
4
Average
Average
Average
Green
bronze