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Econometrica
Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
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Article . 2022
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https://dx.doi.org/10.48550/ar...
Article . 2020
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Robust Empirical Bayes Confidence Intervals

Robust empirical Bayes confidence intervals
Authors: Armstrong, Timothy B.; Kolesár, Michal; Plagborg-Møller, Mikkel;

Robust Empirical Bayes Confidence Intervals

Abstract

We construct robust empirical Bayes confidence intervals (EBCIs) in a normal means problem. The intervals are centered at the usual linear empirical Bayes estimator, but use a critical value accounting for shrinkage. Parametric EBCIs that assume a normal distribution for the means (Morris (1983b)) may substantially undercover when this assumption is violated. In contrast, our EBCIs control coverage regardless of the means distribution, while remaining close in length to the parametric EBCIs when the means are indeed Gaussian. If the means are treated as fixed, our EBCIs have an average coverage guarantee: the coverage probability is at least 1 − αon average across thenEBCIs for each of the means. Our empirical application considers the effects of U.S. neighborhoods on intergenerational mobility.

Keywords

FOS: Computer and information sciences, Parametric tolerance and confidence regions, Ridge regression; shrinkage estimators (Lasso), Bayesian inference, Econometrics (econ.EM), average coverage, Methodology (stat.ME), FOS: Economics and business, shrinkage, confidence interval, Empirical decision procedures; empirical Bayes procedures, empirical Bayes, Statistics - Methodology, Economics - Econometrics

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    influence
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    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
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selected citations
These citations are derived from selected sources.
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
14
Top 10%
Top 10%
Top 10%
Green
hybrid