
arXiv: 2004.03448
We construct robust empirical Bayes confidence intervals (EBCIs) in a normal means problem. The intervals are centered at the usual linear empirical Bayes estimator, but use a critical value accounting for shrinkage. Parametric EBCIs that assume a normal distribution for the means (Morris (1983b)) may substantially undercover when this assumption is violated. In contrast, our EBCIs control coverage regardless of the means distribution, while remaining close in length to the parametric EBCIs when the means are indeed Gaussian. If the means are treated as fixed, our EBCIs have an average coverage guarantee: the coverage probability is at least 1 − αon average across thenEBCIs for each of the means. Our empirical application considers the effects of U.S. neighborhoods on intergenerational mobility.
FOS: Computer and information sciences, Parametric tolerance and confidence regions, Ridge regression; shrinkage estimators (Lasso), Bayesian inference, Econometrics (econ.EM), average coverage, Methodology (stat.ME), FOS: Economics and business, shrinkage, confidence interval, Empirical decision procedures; empirical Bayes procedures, empirical Bayes, Statistics - Methodology, Economics - Econometrics
FOS: Computer and information sciences, Parametric tolerance and confidence regions, Ridge regression; shrinkage estimators (Lasso), Bayesian inference, Econometrics (econ.EM), average coverage, Methodology (stat.ME), FOS: Economics and business, shrinkage, confidence interval, Empirical decision procedures; empirical Bayes procedures, empirical Bayes, Statistics - Methodology, Economics - Econometrics
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